Probability |
1 | C1 | Introduction, counting and sets |
1a: Introduction (PDF) 1b: Counting and Sets (PDF) Reading Questions for 1b Reading Questions for R Intro
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Class 1 Slides (PDF) Class 1 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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Problem Set 1 (PDF) Problem Set 1 Checker Problem Set 1 Solutions (PDF)
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C2 | Probability basics |
2: Probability: Terminology and Examples (PDF) Reading Questions for 2 R Tutorial 1A: Basics R Tutorial 1B: Random Numbers
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Class 2 Slides (PDF) Class 2 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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S1 |
Birthday matches; Introduction to R | | |
2 | C3 | Conditional probability, Bayes' theorem |
3: Conditional Probability, Independence and Bayes' Theorem (PDF) Reading Questions for 3
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Class 3 Slides (PDF) Class 3 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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Problem Set 2 (PDF) Problem Set 2 Checker Problem Set 2 Solutions (PDF)
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C4 | Discrete random variables, expectation |
Reading Questions for R 4a: Discrete Random Variables (PDF) Reading Questions for 4a 4b: Discrete Random Variables: Expected Value (PDF) Reading Questions for 4b
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Class 4 Slides (PDF) Class 4 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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S2 | Expectation; Simulation using R | | |
3 | C5 | Variance, continuous random variables |
5a: Variance of Discrete Random Variables (PDF) Reading Questions for 5a 5b: Continuous Random Variables (PDF) Reading Questions for 5b
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Class 5 Slides (PDF) Class 5 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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Problem Set 3 (PDF) Problem Set 3 Checker Problem Set 3 Solutions (PDF)
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S3 | Gallery of continuous variables, histograms |
5c: Gallery of Continuous Random Variables (PDF) Reading Questions for 5c 5d: Manipulating Continuous Random Variables (PDF) Reading Questions for 5d
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Class 5 Slides, cont'd (PDF) Class 5 Slides, cont'd with Solutions (PDF)
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4 | C6 | Expectation, variance, law of large numbers and central limit theorem |
6a: Expectation, Variance and Standard Deviation for Continuous Random Variables (PDF) Reading Questions for 6a 6b: Central Limit Theorem and the Law of Large Numbers (PDF) Reading Questions for 6b 6c: Appendix (PDF)
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Class 6 Slides (PDF) Class 6 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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Problem Set 4 (PDF) Problem Set 4 Checker Problem Set 4 Solutions (PDF)
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C7 | Joint distributions: independence, covariance and correlation |
7a: Joint Distributions, Independence (PDF) Reading Questions for 7a 7b: Covariance and Correlation (PDF) Reading Questions for 7b
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Class 7 Slides (PDF) Class 7 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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S4 | Covariance, correlation, CLT | | |
5 | C8 | Review for exam 1 |
Class 8: Exam Review (PDF)
Class 8: Exam Review Solutions (PDF)
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Class 8 Slides (PDF) Class 8 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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C9 | Exam 1 | | | |
Statistics: Bayesian Inference
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5 | C10 | Introduction to statistics; maximum likelihood estimates |
10a: Introduction to Statistics (PDF) Reading Questions for 10a 10b: Maximum Likelihood Estimates (PDF) Reading Questions for 10b
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Class 10 Slides (PDF) Class 10 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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6 | C11 | Bayesian updating with known discrete priors |
11: Bayesian Updating with Discrete Priors (PDF) Reading Questions for 11
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Class 11 Slides (PDF) Class 11 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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Problem Set 5 (PDF) Problem Set 5 Checker Problem Set 5 Solutions (PDF)
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C12 | Bayesian updating: probabilistic prediction; odds |
12a: Bayesian Updating: Probabilistic Prediction (PDF) Reading Questions for 12a 12b: Bayesian Updating: Odds (PDF) Reading Questions for 12b
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Class 12 Slides (PDF) Class 12 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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S5 | Bayesian updating | | |
7 | C13 | Bayesian updating: continuous prior, discrete data |
13a: Bayesian Updating with Continuous Priors (PDF) Reading Questions for 13a 13b: Notational Conventions (PDF)
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Class 13 Slides (PDF) Class 13 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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C14 | Beta distributions: continuous data |
14a: Beta Distributions (PDF) 14b: Continuous Data with continuous Priors (PDF) Reading Questions for 14a and 14b
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Class 14 Slides (PDF) Class 14 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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S6 | Continuous data, continuous priors | | |
8 | C15 | Conjugate priors; choosing priors |
15a: Conjugate Priors: Beta and Normal (PDF) Reading Questions for 15a 15b: Choosing Priors (PDF)
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Class 15 Slides (PDF) Class 15 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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Problem Set 6 (PDF) Problem Set 6 Checker Problem Set 6 Solutions (PDF)
Problem Set 6 R Code (R)
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C16 | Probability intervals |
16: Probability Intervals (PDF) Reading Questions for 16
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Class 16 Slides (PDF) Class 16 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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S7 | No studio | | |
Statistics: Frequentist Inference—Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST)
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9 | C17 | Frequentist methods; NHST |
17a: The Frequentist School of Statistics (PDF) 17b: Null Hypothesis Significance Testing I (PDF) Reading Questions for 17b
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Class 17 Slides (PDF) Class 17 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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Problem Set 7 (PDF) Problem Set 7 Checker Problem Set 7 Solutions (PDF)
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C18 | NHST II: Significance level, power, t-tests |
18: Null Hypothesis Significance Testing II (PDF) Reading Questions for 18
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Class 18 Slides (PDF) Class 18 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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S8 | Rejection regions; NHST | | |
10 | C19 | NHST III: Gallery of tests |
19: Null Hypothesis Significance Testing III (PDF) Reading Questions for 19
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Class 19 Slides (PDF) Class 19 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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Problem Set 8 (PDF) Problem Set 8 Checker Problem Set 8 Solutions (PDF)
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C20 | Comparison of Bayesian and frequentist inference | 20: Comparison of Frequentist and Bayesian Inference (PDF) |
Class 20 Slides (PDF) Class 20 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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S9 | NHST; comparing frequentist and Bayesian methods | | |
11 | C21 | Review for exam 2 | |
Class 21 Slides (PDF) Class 21 Solutions File (PDF)
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S10 | Exam 2 | | |
Statistics: Confidence Intervals; Regression
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12 | C22 | Confidence intervals for normal data |
22: Confidence Intervals Based on Normal Data (PDF) Reading Questions for 22
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Class 22 Slides (PDF) Class 22 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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Problem Set 9 (PDF) Problem Set 9 Checker Problem Set 9 Solutions (PDF)
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C23 | Confidence intervals II |
23a: Confidence Intervals: Three Views (PDF) 23b: Confidence Intervals for the Mean of Non-normal Data (PDF)
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Class 23 Slides (PDF) Class 23 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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S11 | Confidence intervals III | | |
13 | C24 | Bootstrap confidence intervals |
24: Bootstrap Confidence Intervals (PDF) Reading Questions for 24
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Class 24 Slides (PDF) Class 24 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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C25 | Linear regression |
25: Linear Regression (PDF) Reading Questions for 25
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Class 25 Slides (PDF) Class 25 Slides with Solutions (PDF)
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S12 | Bootstrapping; linear regression | | |
14 | C26 | Review for final exam | |
Class 26 Slides (PDF) Class 26 Problems File (PDF) Class 26 Solutions File (PDF)
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C27 | Review for final exam, cont'd | |
Class 27 Slides (PDF) Class 27 Problems File (PDF) Class 27 Solutions File (PDF)
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15 | | Final exam | | | |