1 00:00:10,900 --> 00:00:13,720 PROFESSOR: So in order to use our results for the analysis 2 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:19,270 of the well-mixed room into the safety guideline, 3 00:00:19,270 --> 00:00:20,650 let me just summarize the results 4 00:00:20,650 --> 00:00:24,430 for the general case of transient build-up of aerosols 5 00:00:24,430 --> 00:00:27,460 in the room and the associated transmission. 6 00:00:27,460 --> 00:00:29,800 So here is the result that we derived 7 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:31,960 earlier, which is that the transmission 8 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:35,170 rate as a function of time is an integral over all the droplet 9 00:00:35,170 --> 00:00:36,370 sizes. 10 00:00:36,370 --> 00:00:40,510 And then you have here the mask filtration factor, 11 00:00:40,510 --> 00:00:42,460 which depends on size P_m. 12 00:00:42,460 --> 00:00:44,050 You have the breathing rate Q_b that 13 00:00:44,050 --> 00:00:46,460 comes in squared because there's one person breathing out, 14 00:00:46,460 --> 00:00:47,780 another person breathing in. 15 00:00:47,780 --> 00:00:49,390 You got the volume of the room. 16 00:00:49,390 --> 00:00:51,250 You have here the relaxation rate 17 00:00:51,250 --> 00:00:53,780 for the concentration of aerosol in the room, 18 00:00:53,780 --> 00:00:56,770 which here is given by four factors for ventilation, 19 00:00:56,770 --> 00:01:01,090 sedimentation, filtration, and deactivation. 20 00:01:01,090 --> 00:01:03,460 And then for the production of aerosols, 21 00:01:03,460 --> 00:01:07,330 there's this n_q(r), which is the number of exhaled infection 22 00:01:07,330 --> 00:01:10,570 quanta per volume, per air volume leaving 23 00:01:10,570 --> 00:01:14,110 the breath per radius because it's still resolved 24 00:01:14,110 --> 00:01:15,850 by the different droplet radii. 25 00:01:15,850 --> 00:01:17,350 And this has several contributions. 26 00:01:17,350 --> 00:01:21,180 It has n_d(r), which is the distribution of droplet sizes. 27 00:01:21,180 --> 00:01:24,490 V_d(r) is the volume of each droplet. 28 00:01:24,490 --> 00:01:26,890 Depends on the respiratory activity. 29 00:01:26,890 --> 00:01:31,000 C_v is the viral load, which we are typically 30 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:33,490 assuming is near the maximum when we're concerned 31 00:01:33,490 --> 00:01:35,110 about controlling spreading. 32 00:01:35,110 --> 00:01:38,500 And C_i(r) is the infectivity per virion, 33 00:01:38,500 --> 00:01:41,890 which we have discussed before also may have a size dependence 34 00:01:41,890 --> 00:01:45,130 and is most likely higher in the aerosol droplets. 35 00:01:45,130 --> 00:01:46,750 So that's the general solution. 36 00:01:46,750 --> 00:01:49,330 And the safety guideline we just discussed 37 00:01:49,330 --> 00:01:54,050 has in it the time average beta, so beta with the two brackets, 38 00:01:54,050 --> 00:01:58,360 which is the integral in time of beta divided by the time tau. 39 00:01:58,360 --> 00:01:59,890 So you break that into two parts. 40 00:01:59,890 --> 00:02:01,240 So we integrate this here. 41 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:03,130 The one here is-- 42 00:02:03,130 --> 00:02:04,780 it gives you a steady state term, 43 00:02:04,780 --> 00:02:07,300 and the interval is shown right here. 44 00:02:07,300 --> 00:02:09,639 And that's basically the-- 45 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:14,500 ultimately the average that remains, but initially 46 00:02:14,500 --> 00:02:16,850 when the infected person first walks in the room, 47 00:02:16,850 --> 00:02:20,130 there's a time to build up the concentration, which only 48 00:02:20,130 --> 00:02:21,800 lowers the transmission rate. 49 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:23,590 So the average transmission rate is always 50 00:02:23,590 --> 00:02:24,670 less than the steady state. 51 00:02:24,670 --> 00:02:26,120 You're approaching the steady state 52 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:28,300 from below because you need the time to build up 53 00:02:28,300 --> 00:02:29,420 those droplets. 54 00:02:29,420 --> 00:02:32,050 And so the DELTA beta here, which is that correction, 55 00:02:32,050 --> 00:02:33,520 takes the following form. 56 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:36,820 What you can do is bring the interval over time and switch 57 00:02:36,820 --> 00:02:39,340 places with the integration over r 58 00:02:39,340 --> 00:02:42,340 and do the time integral inside the integral. 59 00:02:42,340 --> 00:02:44,890 And so that allows you to get-- instead of lambda_c here, 60 00:02:44,890 --> 00:02:46,660 you get lambda_c squared, and you 61 00:02:46,660 --> 00:02:49,620 get the following expression for the DELTA beta. 62 00:02:49,620 --> 00:02:51,500 It may not be obvious looking at it, 63 00:02:51,500 --> 00:02:53,860 but if you take a look at tau going to 0, 64 00:02:53,860 --> 00:02:56,800 this expression leads to just beta bar. 65 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:58,870 So DELTA beta of 0 is beta bar, and that's 66 00:02:58,870 --> 00:03:00,730 because if you take this exponential here 67 00:03:00,730 --> 00:03:04,690 and you go to small times, you can linearize that and find 68 00:03:04,690 --> 00:03:05,470 its lambda_c t. 69 00:03:05,470 --> 00:03:07,430 So it factors-- cancels one factor 70 00:03:07,430 --> 00:03:10,450 of lambda_c, one factor of tau, and you end up 71 00:03:10,450 --> 00:03:14,840 with just a single lambda_c as above. 72 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:18,220 So what that means is that the average beta, which 73 00:03:18,220 --> 00:03:22,860 we're plotting here, as a function of the time tau 74 00:03:22,860 --> 00:03:24,230 starts out at 0. 75 00:03:24,230 --> 00:03:27,140 It ramps up and then eventually approaches a steady state, 76 00:03:27,140 --> 00:03:28,520 and here's the full solution. 77 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:29,900 So all the information that we've 78 00:03:29,900 --> 00:03:32,810 talked about before in terms of filtration, sedimentation, 79 00:03:32,810 --> 00:03:35,020 other phenomena in the well-mixed room 80 00:03:35,020 --> 00:03:36,440 are all included in this framework 81 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:38,630 and can then be put into the safety guideline 82 00:03:38,630 --> 00:03:42,440 to derive a general safety guideline that 83 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,500 has all of the physics that we want in there 84 00:03:45,500 --> 00:03:49,250 and allows you to define a safe occupancy for a room.